Measuring the Effects of Influence Operations: Key Findings and Gaps from Empirical Research

This systematic review of 82 empirical studies on influence operation effects addresses one of the most contested questions in the field: do influence operations actually work? The honest answer the authors give is: we don't know well enough. The studies reviewed produce inconsistent findings, use incompatible methodologies, and measure different things — making cumulative knowledge difficult to build. The report maps what is known, what is contested, and where the evidence is simply absent.

The methodological critique embedded in this report is as important as its findings. Much of the policy discussion about influence operations assumes effects that the empirical literature does not reliably demonstrate — particularly regarding attitude change and electoral impact. For practitioners and policymakers, this is important context: it does not mean influence operations are harmless, but it does mean that confident claims about their effects should be treated with scepticism. The report is also a practical guide to what methodological standards a credible effects study needs to meet — useful for commissioning or evaluating research.